Decision Day for America
Tuesday, November 8, 2016
Vol. 5, No. 313
Election Day: And you thought this day would never come.
Hillary Clinton made her last campaign appearance before a sea of people at Independence Hall in Philadelphia in an event with Bruce Springsteen, husband Bill, and President Obama. She tried to finish on the upbeat. “Tomorrow we face the test of our time. What will we vote for — not just against?” Mrs. Clinton asked. “Every issue you care about is at stake.”
Donald Trump finished his campaign in Grand Rapids last night after hopscotching through four other events. He went out railing on about a rigged system and the dishonest media.
Clinton was expected to vote at near home in Chappaqua, NY this morning. Trump was expected to vote a little later in New York City.
The NY Times “Upshot” gives Clinton an 84-16 percent chance of winning the election, and Democrats a 55 percent chance of taking a majority in the Senate.
Electoral College: A relatively short list of states will likely determine the outcome of the election. Clinton has a lead in eight of 11 battleground states.
On the East Coast, keep an eye on Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College Votes), North Carolina (15) and Florida (29). If Hillary Clinton wins two out of three, or all three, it’s over for Donald Trump. He pretty much can’t win without Florida, and we would know by roughly 8-8:30 pm EST.
New Hampshire (4) and Virginia (13) are considered toss-ups.
Wisconsin (10) and Michigan (16) lean toward Clinton. Ohio (18) is Trump Country and no Republican in recent history has won without Ohio.
Moving west, Iowa (6) is likely Trump. Colorado (9) and Nevada (6) are leaning toward Clinton.
The LA Times boldly predicts an Electoral College blowout for Clinton; 352-186.
The Senate: If Hillary Clinton can win the presidency, nearly as critical is winning a majority in the US Senate. The Senate today has 54 Republicans and 44 Democrats, with two Independents. Thirty-four seats are up for election, 24 of them held by Republicans. The Democrats need an additional four seats, if Clinton wins; five if she loses.
The Democrats have a shot at taking Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. There’s a close race to replace retiring Democrat Harry Reid in Nevada, so the Democrats could lose that one.
Demographics: Race matters, particularly in an election featuring Donald Trump.
There’s been a surge of Hispanic voter registrations and early voting, both of which should favor Hillary Clinton. Florida is 44 percent non-white with a rising percentage of Hispanics. North Carolina and Virginia are 34 and 35 percent non-white. Those states also having rising numbers of white voters with higher education. Educated, Clinton; Uneducated, Trump.
The Brexit Effect: Leading into the British vote on leaving the European Union, polls said the proposal would be shot down, but then it passed.
Trump operatives are pushing the idea that the polls have not taken account the people who won’t say they plan to vote for Trump. It’s hard to know what you don’t know, but research commissioned by the NY Times says those unidentified Trump voters might be just as likely to stay home as show at the polls.
Marijuana!: Little noticed amid all the presidential noise is that voters in eight states will be deciding whether to approve marijuana for medical or recreational use. Stoners may end up with a legal menu of bud including Big Buddah Cheese, Platinum Bubba Kush, and Dawg Star.
Maine, Massachusetts, Arizona, Nevada and California are voting on recreational marijuana. Voting whether to approve medicinal marijuana are Florida, Montana, and North Dakota.
Right now recreational marijuana is legal in only four states and the District of Columbia. Medicinal marijuana is legal in half the states.
Don’t Bogart that joint, my friend.
Nation: A Federal jury in Virginia awarded $3 million to Nicole P. Eramo, a former University of Virginia assistant dean who won a defamation suit against Rolling Stone Magazine for her portrayal in the magazine’s 2014 article, “A Rape on Campus.” — Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie have reached a divorced agreement that gives sole custody of their six children to Angie.
Tic Toc: CNN’s election countdown clock resets and begins counting down again tomorrow.
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