Poll-itics: In a flip-flop from the national trend, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump 24 percent to 19 percent in the Iowa Republican polls. Marco Rubio is running third at 17 percent.

Chris Cillizza writes in The Washington Post that despite being third nationally right now, Cruz is actually in the best position to win the Republican nomination. He’s second overall raising money — behind Jeb! Bush — and Cillizza says, Cruz appeals to the far right. “Cruz has staked out a position on the far right on virtually every major hot-button issue, including immigration, Obamacare, national security and the fight against the Islamic State militant group. And, tonally, Cruz comes across as aggressively and unapologetically conservative — a less controversial and more electable version of real estate magnate Trump.”

Donald Trump disagrees. He said about Cruz on Fox News, “I don’t think he has the right temperament. I don’t think he’s got the right judgment. When you look at the way he has dealt with the Senate, where he goes in there like a, you know, frankly, like a little bit of a maniac – you are never going to get things done that way.”

The Usual Suspects: Nine republican candidates have made the cut to appear on CNN’s next debate tomorrow night, the last debate of the year. The starting squad: Donald Trump at center stage with Ben Carson on his right and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz on his left. Chris Christie has been restored to the varsity after being sent down for the Fox Business debate. The other five in the prime-time bragfest will be Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, Ohio Gov. John Kasich, and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

Expect Marco Rubio to say his father was a bartender and his mother was a maid.

Econ 101: The Federal reserve is expected to raise interest rates this week for the first time since the start of the Great Recession. It’s a signal that the Fed thinks the financial crisis is over, or pretty much sort-of over, and it’s time to crawl back toward normal financial policy.

World: Egyptian investigators say they’ve found no evidence that terrorism was responsible for the crash of a Russian tourist jet in the Sinai desert. That’s directly contrary to findings by the Russians.

The Obit Page: Arthur Hadley, a decorated veteran of World War II who wrote about the US military during the Cold War years, has died at age 91. Hadley had intimate knowledge of the US military and the politics that directed it. He once wrote, “After billions of dollars spent on defense and on NATO, we are back with the choice we sought all along to avoid, the choice between relying on ground and air forces that cannot win and starting a nuclear war that is not winnable.”

Gather All the News I Need: A winter storm warning is in effect in parts of Idaho, Central Montana, and Wyoming as heavy weather that flooded the Northwest moves east. It’s 26 in Great Falls, Mt and 36 in Casper, Wyo. With snow expected.

But unusually warm weather continues in the Northeast. It’s 51 in Bennington, Vt., with a high expected near 60. It’s 53 in New York and 47 in Boston. Chances for a white Christmas look slim.

-30-